Do you know the feeling of standing helplessly in front of a technical problem, with modern devices leaving you no room to intervene in the solution because they are closed systems? It feels like you have no control and are at the mercy of the manufacturer. I work in IT myself and have carried out many software projects in various roles throughout my life. Actually, I am not willing— and I also tell all my friends and acquaintances— to help with technical issues on home devices like smartphones, computers, or laptops. My usual saying is: “I’d rather help you move than fix a computer problem.”
But what if it’s your own device to deal with? Then you have to take care of it. Many problems can be solved with extensive Googling or by asking an AI of your choice. I recently encountered an issue with my iPad that turned out to be tricky to fix.
Let me briefly explain the problem: Despite having automatic updates enabled, I hadn’t updated my iPad for a long time. The latest iPadOS version was 18.3.2, but I was still running 16.6.1 without realizing it. That really surprised me. When I tried to manually trigger the update, the iPad downloaded it for a long time, prepared the update even longer, restarted, but remained on the old operating system.
Spoiler Alert: The strategies I present in this article help with almost any issue 🤓.
A good reading advice that helped me a lot: The Logic of Failure: Strategic Thinking in Complex Situations (german)
TL;DR: The final solution was to reset the iPad, set it up as a new device, immediately install the update, and then restore it from the last backup. Often, an update fails to complete correctly in a specific system state. By resetting the device, updating to the latest iPadOS version, and then restoring the backup, I was able to resolve the issue.
Why this article?
After solving the problem, I reflected on it and realized that I had more options to intervene than I initially thought. My initial reluctance to go to the Genius Bar like any average customer was confirmed. Before fixing the issue, my belief was: They probably can’t do much more than I can. They might have diagnostic tools to rule out hardware issues, but they also face a closed system just like I do. The only possible solution in some cases is a replacement device.
I don’t want to give in to this pessimism but rather focus on my experience and highlight how much we can achieve — especially with a scientific approach, which I came to appreciate during my PhD.
External Solution Approaches
Back to the update problem. The only indication of the failed update was this: When I went back to the software update page under “Settings – General” afterwards, it briefly displayed an error message stating that an error had occurred while searching for the update. Repeating the update process multiple times didn’t help 😉.
I started troubleshooting and found that I could only come across standard solutions:
Sources unanimously stated that the most likely reason was insufficient storage space on the device. In addition to downloading the package, the file also needs to be unpacked. During installation, additional space is required. A second, less likely reason mentioned was a corrupted installation file. The recommended steps were to free up storage on the iPad, delete the installation file under “Settings – General – iPad Storage” (if present), restart the device (preferably turning it off completely and back on), and try again.
The only standard argument missing was: “You have a problem with your device? Then first update it to the latest version.” That was exactly what I was trying to do 🥸. However, at least the second most common tip – “Have you tried turning it off and on again?” (see IT Crowd) – did show up. This often helps, but not in my case. Even though it supposedly solves around 98% of all problems, I was out of luck this time (besides the usual checks like “Is the internet working?” and “Is the power plugged in or the battery charged?”).
One last resort from the sources was to install the update via a Mac. That means downloading the latest iPadOS version on a Mac and transferring it to the iPad. But even that didn’t work. Nevertheless, I’d recommend following this order because it shows that there are multiple small adjustments one can make, even though the iPad essentially only offers that big “Update” button. More on that later.
Next Stop: Working Hypotheses
Since I’ve dealt with scientific methodologies for (many) years, my next step was to formulate some working hypotheses and validate or falsify them. I quickly arrived at a conclusion, but I’d also like to mention the steps I would have tried next.
First Hypothesis: There is a log file that tells me the issue and then the solution can’t be far. So, I navigated to “Settings – Privacy & Security – Analytics & Improvements – Analytics Data,” where individual logs are displayed. Scrolling up reveals a search field. Entering “Update” shows logs for recent over-the-air updates. I exported the log file and fed it into ChatGPT to determine why the update might be failing. The logs indicated that many write operations were being executed and that the update took a long time before failing. Again, the analysis pointed to “probably insufficient storage.” I freed up more space—not just twice the size of the installation file, but around 32 GB.
Unfortunately, none of this worked. I formulated a new hypothesis: Perhaps the issue wasn’t storage but rather that the current system state didn’t allow for an update.
Another hypothesis was that the problem stemmed from skipping two versions (from 16.6.1 directly to 18.3.2). If the next step hadn’t helped, I would have checked whether I could first install iPadOS 17 and then move to the 18.x version. More on that later.
I then reset the iPad. To do this, I went to “Settings – General – Reset iPad.” A prompt appears asking if you’d like to perform an iCloud backup beforehand. I did this. Although it didn’t fully complete (even after running overnight), I had recently created an iPad backup and verified its success. To check this, go to “Settings,” tap your name at the top (Apple ID), then “iCloud,” and finally “iCloud Backup.”
I went all-in, reset the iPad, restarted it, and manually configured it as a new device without signing in with my Apple ID. Then I navigated to “Settings – General – Software Update” and started the update to 18.3.2. Although it took a long time, it was successful! Afterwards, the iPad was running on the new version.
I then reset the device again (the new iPadOS version remains) to get a clean system once more. Why? Because I wanted to restore my backup to recover my old data and settings. After restarting, you land in the initial configuration workflow again. Here, if you hold an iPhone nearby, you can start the setup process or proceed manually, sign in with your Apple ID, and restore the previously created iCloud backup. This happens in several steps: First, the data that was on the iPad’s storage is restored. Then, apps are downloaded, and at the very end, data such as photos, messages, etc., is synchronized from iCloud.
Alternative Approach
If this step hadn’t helped, I would still have had the option to install the “next” iPadOS version (e.g., 17.x) via Mac, thereby avoiding the “double version jump.” Individual actions can also be combined. However, it is crucial to change only one parameter per hypothesis, validate or falsify it, and then proceed. If multiple steps are attempted simultaneously, it becomes unclear which one resolved the issue. Especially when dealing with more than two possible variables, the number of variations quickly grows. Backups can be restored and tested again, but if the goal is to determine which action was decisive, a systematic and step-by-step approach is essential.
Why Beeing Systematic ?
In computer science (and generally in mathematics), we often work with combinatorics and probability theory. Whether we consider combinations or permutations of subsets (variations) depends on whether the order of steps matters. For some common questions about updates and troubleshooting, combinations are sufficient since we only need to check whether measure X or Y was applied. Here, order is relevant: For example, “first reset the iPad, then install iPadOS 17, then update to 18, and finally restore the backup” may yield a different result than “first install iPadOS 17 via Mac, then reset the device,” etc. The number of combinations grows exponentially to the base 2 (
), but the variations…
Formulas
Without Order (Combinations):
![\[\sum_{k=1}^{n} \binom{n}{k} = 2^n - 1\]](https://www.kingsware.de/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-5707788bd88da633fb607eb4337e1edb_l3.png "Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com")
This counts all possible non-empty combinations of the options.
With Order (Permutations of Subsets):
![\[\sum_{k=1}^{n} P(n,k) = \sum_{k=1}^{n} \frac{n!}{(n-k)!}\]](https://www.kingsware.de/wp-content/ql-cache/quicklatex.com-ce7d43ce55fdec8100d43fa374ab6969_l3.png "Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com")
This counts all possible ordered combinations (variations).
Computed Values
| Options | Without Order | With Order |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | 15 | 64 |
| 5 | 31 | 325 |
| 6 | 63 | 1956 |
When you try multiple possible steps in different sequences, the number of variations explodes. And if you then want to determine exactly which sequence led to the solution, only a systematic approach will help. Randomly trying things is a gamble – it might work, but in the worst case, you end up running in circles indefinitely because you lose track.
That’s why it’s important not to blindly try different measures but to first come up with a hypothesis that you test deliberately. Otherwise, you might end up not knowing which steps actually contributed to the solution. Especially for complex problems with many possible variables, a methodical approach saves time and frustration.
In my case, the solution was to reset the device, manually configure it as a new iPad, immediately perform the update, and only then restore from the backup. This sequence worked because it cleaned up the system state before installing the update. This shows: Even though modern devices seem like “closed systems,” there are ways to solve problems – as long as you keep a cool head and proceed in a structured manner.
Conclusion
I recommend taking a systematic approach and working from minimal to more invasive steps. The fewer changes needed to the system, the better:
- Diagnosis before action: Understand first, then act. Logs and error messages provide valuable clues.
- Test hypotheses, don’t guess or gamble: Try each measure deliberately to validate or falsify it.
- Sequence matters: Some problems can only be solved in a specific order. That makes troubleshooting challenging.
- Reset as a last resort: If nothing else helps, a factory reset followed by an update is a reliable option.
A scientific approach solves even the most stubborn problems – not just update issues on iPads.
Exciting 🤓.
This article has been written with help from an LLM, which may make errors (like humans do 😇).